Contango
A market condition in which futures prices sit above the current spot price, usually rising with the length of the contract.
Contango describes the shape of the futures curve at a moment in time, not an expectation. In commodity markets it is normally explained by storage, insurance, and financing costs of holding the physical good until delivery. Digital assets have no meaningful storage or insurance cost, so a crypto futures curve in contango mainly reflects the cost of capital and demand from participants seeking leveraged long exposure through derivatives rather than by acquiring the asset. Funds that maintain futures exposure must roll expiring contracts into more expensive later ones while the curve stays in this shape, which is a recurring drag on their tracking of spot.
En pratique
A dated futures curve where each successive expiry trades above the one before it is described as being in contango.
Le malentendu courant
Contango is not a prediction that prices will rise; it describes the current shape of the curve, which converges to spot at expiry regardless.