Liquidation Cascade

Hoe het werkt

Perpetual futures and on-chain lending both close positions automatically when collateral falls below a maintenance threshold, and both close them by selling into the same market that determines the price. When leverage is clustered, one wave of forced selling pushes the price into the next tier of thresholds, and each tier's liquidations become the next tier's cause. Several amplifiers commonly appear together: cross-margin arrangements where a fall in one asset closes positions in another, collateral that is itself volatile, oracle updates that lag a fast move and then arrive all at once, and network congestion that prevents users from adding collateral or bidders from participating in auctions. When the insurance fund is exhausted, venues fall back to auto-deleveraging, which closes profitable positions on the other side and transmits the shock to traders who were correct.

Wat u daadwerkelijk kunt waarnemen

Compare open interest against spot order-book depth, since the ratio indicates how much forced flow a market may have to absorb. Funding rates at persistent extremes indicate crowded positioning, and aggregate liquidation prints show what actually cleared. Insurance fund balances, their drawdown history, and any past use of auto-deleveraging are published by major derivatives venues, and on-chain lending markets publish liquidation thresholds and the value sitting near them.

Precedent

During the March 2020 sell-off, a rapid decline combined with network congestion caused MakerDAO collateral auctions to clear at token amounts far below normal, while centralized venues processed very large forced-liquidation volumes in the same window.

Wat het meer of minder materieel maakt

Look at open interest relative to real depth, funding-rate extremes, the size and history of the insurance fund, the volatility of accepted collateral, and how oracle latency behaves during fast moves.