Unlock Overhang

작동 방식

Token distributions commonly reserve substantial shares for a team, a foundation, and private investors, released after a cliff and then linearly over months or years. Until an unlock, those units cannot be sold on-chain, so the price is set by a much smaller free float, and the headline market capitalization multiplies that price by a supply figure that may exclude them. As unlocks approach, holders of locked allocations can pre-hedge through perpetual futures or sell forward over the counter at a discount, so price effects can arrive before the tokens do. Because vesting contracts are public, the calendar is known in advance to anyone who reads it, and the resulting flow is a scheduled feature of the design rather than an event.

실제로 관찰 가능한 항목

Read the vesting contracts directly to obtain cliff dates, release curves, and beneficiary addresses, and compare circulating supply, total supply, and fully diluted valuation, which is total supply valued at the current price rather than any amount ever invested. After an unlock, follow whether released tokens move to exchange deposit addresses, to a custodian, or stay put, since that movement is observable. Open interest and funding rates on perpetual markets around scheduled dates show whether positioning is anticipating the release.

수치의 중요성에 영향을 미치는 요인

Check the size of each tranche relative to average daily traded volume and to order-book depth, the concentration of beneficiaries, whether earlier tranches were sold or held, and how much of supply remains locked.