Unlock Overhang
Large allocations to insiders and early investors become transferable on a published schedule, adding sellable supply the tradable float has never absorbed.
仕組み
Token distributions commonly reserve substantial shares for a team, a foundation, and private investors, released after a cliff and then linearly over months or years. Until an unlock, those units cannot be sold on-chain, so the price is set by a much smaller free float, and the headline market capitalization multiplies that price by a supply figure that may exclude them. As unlocks approach, holders of locked allocations can pre-hedge through perpetual futures or sell forward over the counter at a discount, so price effects can arrive before the tokens do. Because vesting contracts are public, the calendar is known in advance to anyone who reads it, and the resulting flow is a scheduled feature of the design rather than an event.
実際に観測できるもの
Read the vesting contracts directly to obtain cliff dates, release curves, and beneficiary addresses, and compare circulating supply, total supply, and fully diluted valuation, which is total supply valued at the current price rather than any amount ever invested. After an unlock, follow whether released tokens move to exchange deposit addresses, to a custodian, or stay put, since that movement is observable. Open interest and funding rates on perpetual markets around scheduled dates show whether positioning is anticipating the release.
重要性を左右する要因
Check the size of each tranche relative to average daily traded volume and to order-book depth, the concentration of beneficiaries, whether earlier tranches were sold or held, and how much of supply remains locked.
関連要因
この対象となる資産
このファクターが適用されるカテゴリに分類される、最大規模の資産。ここへの掲載は、そのファクターが当該種類の資産に関連することを意味するのであり、それが発生したことを意味するものではない。